Eyes on the risks - and the opportunities ahead

If there’s one thing growers know better than anyone, it’s how quickly conditions can change.

As a sector, we are always scanning the horizon for risks - whether that’s biosecurity threats like the yellow-legged hornet or Queensland fruit fly or the prospect of severe weather events that can turn a good season into a challenging one overnight.

That vigilance is really important. Protecting our crops, our livelihoods and our people depends on it.

But as we head into the year ahead, it’s just as important to lift our eyes and recognise that there is also a lot to be excited about.

The Ministry for Primary Industries Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report released in December last year projects horticulture export revenue will rise five per cent to $9.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2026.

Kiwifruit export revenue is forecast to rise to $4.3 billion off the back of another strong season, with good yields and continued solid prices.

Apples have reached a $1 billion export milestone, supported by favourable growing conditions.

Cherries are also shaping up well, with a large harvest expected to lift export revenue by around five per cent, while vegetable exports are forecast to rise, albeit modestly.

These numbers matter. They represent jobs, investment and economic activity in rural and regional New Zealand.

There was also encouraging news on the trade front at the end of last year.

The conclusion of free trade negotiations between New Zealand and India is a significant opportunity for horticulture.

Improved access for products like apples, kiwifruit, cherries, avocados, persimmons and blueberries will help diversify our export portfolio and position the sector for long-term growth in a market forecast to become the world’s third-largest economy.

The full commercial benefits will take time, particularly where access is phased in, but the direction of travel is positive.

Alongside the SOPI outlook, the India FTA supports our ambition, set out in the Aotearoa Horticulture Action Plan, to double farmgate value by 2035.

Of course, strong export earnings and Free Trade Agreements do not automatically translate to profitability at the farm gate.

Input costs remain high, and for many growers margins are tight. If we want horticulture to grow and invest with confidence, the sector must have the right policy settings and growers must be able to capture value.

Profitability is not a nice-to-have - it is critical to the long-term sustainability of our sector.

So yes, we will continue to keep a close eye on the challenges - because we must. But let’s also take confidence from the momentum building across horticulture. There are exciting opportunities and New Zealand growers are well placed to make the most of them.